Sunday, April 12, 2015

First High Arctic SEA ICE Underside Melt 2015

~Earlier than 2014 and 2011 later than 2010 and 2012
~ Made different by lack of surface snow
~ Interpretations from multi-coupled thermal systems made simple by one horizontal line.

    First sea ice underside melt (FM) happens after the long Arctic night when there was 
a continuous accretion of sea ice only interrupted by passing warm Arctic Cyclones.  Following Polar long night sunrise,  the sea ice horizon is always observed elevated  compared to true astronomical horizon which occurs when the sea (ice/land) surface temperature is equal to the air immediately above.  The main characteristic of the first underside melt is that it is observed never lower than true astronomical horizon unless the entire ice column temperature is greater than surface air.   In Arctic Spring, sea ice is a "heat sink"  because it tends to be always colder than sea ice and air,  but when there is no longer thermal emissions from ice towards air,  the underside melts.  This gives an apparent "noon" pause in horizon height variations until the sun lowers in the evening,   the horizon appears to rise greatly at every sunset or lower sun (when there is a midnight sun).  The process usually continues the next sunny or even cloudy days until complete melting happens.  

         From FM observation onwards the underside melt is usually observed to last gradually longer day by day,  lasting a few minutes on the first day,  eventually taking on hours as spring progresses.  From FM onwards,  sea ice may vanish if warmer air, water and sun rays focus on the colder ice column.  Once the ice gone,  the horizon may be observed lower than true astronomical horizon, this happens when surface air temperature is colder than sea surface temperature.   

     This refraction based observation method helps analyze the true nature of the sea ice to air interface - it is an instant analysis of  thermal geophysics spanning a huge distance. 
It is foremost the over all  encapsulation of the winter  climate just freshly past;      

  We look back,  and find out the significance in yearly first melt dates.                                      

2010 (top spring photo) had El-Nino during winter,   FM's don't happen earlier because it's warmer, rather a matter of all thermal physics,  from sea water, ice thickness, ice colour,   snow coverage, air temperature,  solar radiation,  cloud cover,  near surface convection/inversions, aerosols and finally the location of the Cold temperature North Pole over winter/spring.  2010 had a particular first melt aftermath,   excepting 2012,  stronger and longer than the others. Over all sea ice was thinner.    2011 (2nd from top) had nowhere as warm a winter as 2012,  the first melt was captured April 15,  with following extremely consistent progressive melt periods (continuing all the way to a large minima decrease).   2012 was fascinating by earlier tendencies of near first melt occurrences by late February, it occurred on March 12, along with  subsequent regular strong melting,  as strong as 2010.   But the clue for a great sea ice melt to come is in the tendencies towards the true astronomical horizon  especially very early on.  2013 had very inconsistent post FM underside melting.   Again the first date of true astronomical horizon did not matter as much as what happens before and after the recorded date.   March 19 was early ,  but what followed marked the September  sea ice minima in advance, there was no strong consistent underside thawing,  despite regular adiabatic near refraction observations.  Another clue of a very cloudy Arctic summer to come.  Projecting the future Arctic climate more precisely requires multiple sets of different observation events.  

    2014 post mortem:
   April 3 2014,  no sign of any first melt,  was late compared to previous year,  local apparent noon picture (left) has just as high an horizon as 3 hours later.   Vertical vertice  horizontal lines are spaced 3.3 minutes of arc apart.   2014 was the year of the Polar Vortex made popular by weather medias.  But what mattered was the location of the coldest atmosphere in the world.  During Spring 2014,  it was right over Cornwallis Island Nunavut Canada where the pictures were taken.  
   What a difference a week makes.   I interpreted this late FM (right) as the return of burgeoning anticyclonic activity,  in part true,  but it was equally the presence of the Cold Temperature North Pole, lesser clouds and aerosols.  But subsequent daily melting was more consistent than post FM 2013.    

2015 breaking news from the sea ice horizon:

    March 26 2015, NW passage first melt with some early tendencies nearing true astronomical horizon starting 2 weeks prior.  Horizon height (left) is equal to whence the temperature of sea water and surface air was equal on september 10 2014 (right),   the same horizon height has returned announcing melting and the open iceless sea to come. 

    Next week:  the meaning of all this with respect to Northern Hemisphere coming summer weather and Arctic ice minima projection..    WD April12 ,2015 

Saturday, April 4, 2015

Review of last years projections (in Red)

"Summer early winter 2014 Refraction and by other means Projection"  2015 review

~WHAT is the SCORE?
~Distinct Upper air pattern will shape late spring and summer weather for much of the Northern Hemisphere.
~El-Nino come or come later may not matter.
~Tornado season looks normal or better. Typhoons Galore not Hurricanes

"What is the score? From 390 refraction observation comparisons with previous seasons 2002-2013:

#1 2005 13.64%
#2 2014-2013-2010 12.73%
#3 2011 11.82%
#4 2012-2009 10.91%
#5 2006 10% all time maximas

of 110 decimal elevation degree levels, 2005 had the most expanded sun disk levels followed closely by 2014-2013 and 2010. The warmest sun disk expansions in Arctic recent history (from 2002 to 2014) all occurred during the last 5 years at 61%, compared to the previous 8 years. If the whole Northern Hemisphere temperature remained average from year to year the yearly mean would be about 7.7%. "

"NH Temperature Projection for 2014: 2nd warmest year in history without El-Nino, #1 warmest with a new El-Nino mid-summer onwards."

NASA Giss  Northern Hemisphere 2014 average temperature was #1.  Sundisk differential refraction method scores another win,  batting nearly 1000 in baseball terms over several years of such predictions.     

 "Where will be this Summer's Cold Temperature North Pole?   
       "The  C.T.N.P.  zone is actually the biggest single contributor of weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere, it is the heart of the Polar Vortex.   There is CTSP in the Southern Hemishere which does likewise.  As in March 2014 the CTNP was hanging a lot about mid central Quebec,  and gave all kinds of "normal winter of old" weather.  For the folks in NW Europe a summer CTNP at about  Spitsbergen gives buckets of rain especially over the British Isles.     But it seems likely the CTNP to hang about Northern Ellesmere and Greenland, because greater sea ice thickness over Arctic Ocean Basin has been and will continue to help spawn High Pressure systems there.  CTNP over Northern Ellesmere should mainly position the jet stream to the Northwards between Iceland and Ireland.   Although it looks like the rain will return to UK like the summer of 2012,  perhaps less than but certainly plenty grey and wet.  For the shivering Northeastern Americans,  a nice very hot summer awaits,  drier after a wet cool spring.    But it is actually the position of the CTNP which will decide where the jet stream will meander.  An Arctic Dipole will melt the sea ice greater than 2012, the North Pole will see open water,  again like in 2013 when the North Pole was actually a zone of  very loose pack ice,    but this time the sea ice will compress or compact,  leaving a wide open water view of a Pole area not exposed to open water for millennia."

"But it seems likely the CTNP to hang about Northern Ellesmere and Greenland, because greater sea ice thickness over Arctic Ocean Basin has been and will continue to help spawn High Pressure systems there. "

Actual location:

CTNP was over Northern Ellesmere and Greenland but also on the other side  of 0 meridian over Franz Joseph Islands.  Explaining the polar circulation of the entire summer.    The systems rotated slower than 2013,  giving a chance for High pressures to build up over the Arctic Gyre area.   

2013  had a very strong Cold temperature North Pole,  this gave a continuous 
stream of Cyclones mainly from the North Atlantic.   Summer 2013 could not 
have had a great melt because of the cloud coverage combined with anti Arctic Ocean Gyre circulation.   Or Gyre shearing/stalling.   

       2007 CTNP's were even weaker than 2014,  this allowed a great calm over 
the Gyre area.    A definite pro-gyre circulation,  making high pressure systems proficient given the lack of moisture input to create clouds over the entire 90 E and W quadrant towards the Pacific Arctic .  
       The Ultimate melt scenario 2012,  had the weakest circulation possible. 
A single weak CTNP meant very little moisture input from the Atlantic,  lowering Polar cloud coverage and Cyclonic circulation,  which meant Ireland and UK water deluge   .       Despite a modest El-Nino not in time to seed clouds enough 
on time to slow the onslaught.  

"An Arctic Dipole will melt the sea ice greater than 2012, the North Pole will see open water,  again like in 2013 when the North Pole was actually a zone of  very loose pack ice,    but this time the sea ice will compress or compact,  leaving a wide open water view of a Pole area not exposed to open water for millennia."

       No success with the North Pole once again,  the only recurring prediction problem  I really have was covered with ice.  But the said compression did occur very near the Pole:
    Cryosphere Today 2013 extra cloud anti-gyre circulation minima had loose packed sea ice with compression coming late in the melt season.  2014 was somewhat similar but had far greater compaction and a greater presence of Gyre turning Anticyclones.  The result was a compressed core of pack ice with loose
peripheral pack much more pushed towards the North Atlantic.  There was a stronger dipole.  The matter of a wide open North Pole is a matter of probability
likely soon to happen.    Summer 2014 CTNP's were modest but strong enough to have cooled the start of the melting season by clouds from the Atlantic.   The core 
pack at minima 2014 (deep purple above right) is likely the 2015 minima look.   

"Et Tu ENSO?

     Last year saw the most violent typhoon in history,  Haiyan.   Last year also had no El-Nino as well as no Hurricane season to speak of,  but there was a split personality syndrome;  El-Nino to the North , La-Nina South of equator,  this continues today:"

      NOAA/NESDIS  April 17 2014 ENSO suffers again a split personality similar to last year: 

"Except there is a difference,  the Polar Vortex has shown a dissimilar circulation pattern to last year,  so expect a different result.  The PDO especially from the North Pacific warming is 1.6 points higher.   ENSO variations triggers weather but weather patterns affect ENSO moods."

    "April 19, 2014 Polar Tropopause clouds,  higher than Cirrus some appear white some dark,   these are reflections from horizontally Polarized light,  they are a wild mix of chemical clouds, ice crystals and cloud condensation nuclei.  If they exist higher in the sky during twilight the more likely El_Nino is happening.  Right now, at about 7 degrees above the horizon they exist more from a very warm North Pacific and Atlantic,  during an El-Nino they can cover the horizon sky for more than 40 degrees elevation.

     Already in the cards,  more typhoons,  less hurricanes than normal.   If ENSO turns to be a completely formed El-Nino,   the coming winter will be much warmer grey and wetter (yes lots of rain and snow),  if the spilt personality continues (unlikely),   a winter much like the one just past will revisit but with  different CTNP persistent position,.  WDApril 20-21, 2014"

    A mild El-Nino ensued over this winter just past,  CCN, PSC or PTC clouds (in photo right above) were not seen alike  this spring (2015) in the wake of a small La-Nina Blitz in he Southern Pacific Equator.  Which is just recently turning back towards El-Nino.  There is a lag in seeding clouds appearance and or disappearance of a month or so. ENSO "split personality"  at the equator languished at 2014 end of year.   Beginning of 2015 was excessively cloudy in the Arctic.  Only changing at the same time when El-Nino of 2014-15 weakened.  

About Tornadoes Hurricanes and Typhoons:

 This means that the Coldest atmospheric zone is largely surface based,  not influenced by a much colder Stratosphere.  This implies a weaker North American tornado season,  in the one part because the ground air is colder,  in the other the much required colder stratosphere is absent:

     Tornado statistics for 2014; 827,  2013; 908, 2012; 939 and 2011 1691.   By "weaker" I meant with previous year.  Tornado science is well advanced,  I propose 
here a method to enhance the number of tornadoes forecast for the coming season.  Of which 2 main extra parameters from the Arctic should be closely watched,  namely temperature of the stratosphere along with the strength of the Polar stratospheric vortex, both are important because they contribute to dT/dZ the lapse rate stability-or not- of the upper atmosphere.  The more a colder Arctic Upper atmosphere the worse the tornado season:

2011 stratosphere was indeed very cold which came along with a very strong Polar Vortex,  was not the case in 2013 and 2014,  this set a favorable fewer in numbers tornado season .  This is the third yearly tornado  projection which panned out nicely. 


"Already in the cards,  more typhoons,  less hurricanes than normal.   If ENSO turns to be a completely formed El-Nino,   the coming winter will be much warmer grey and wetter (yes lots of rain and snow),  if the spilt personality continues (unlikely),   a winter much like the one just past will revisit but with  different CTNP persistent 

position,.  WDApril 20-21, 2014."

  In 2014, hurricanes were less numerous,  if not scarce (6) ,  while typhoons numerous strong and outright scary, by typhoons I meant the entire Pacific (including what is called hurricanes). WD April 5,2015  



Saturday, March 28, 2015

ENSO Arctic; To cloud and cool or To clear and melt?

~All time low extent maxima may be twinned with perfect melt conditions likely for a little while.  

    We go back to 2010 the X-warmest year in history,  with El-Nino during 2009-10 winter favoring more Polar clouds,   perfect for making thinner sea ice during darkness,  not so good for the melting sea ice during summer.   2010 was interesting,  because La Nina was full blown on December 2010.  This further  delayed a major melting season till 2012.    2010 had almost a perfect mix,  El-Nino during winter and La-Nina hitting in spring would have made 2010 the greatest melting ever.  However La-Nina lagged by a few months.   Now lets compare ENSO's :

     March 2010, the remnants of El-Nino cast a cloudy shadow over the Arctic.  it was a very warm winter with sunsets in spring seen with rounder sun disks.

   The difference is unmistakable,  March 25 2010 (left) had a much rounder sun disk (wetter by moisture signaled redness) at the same astronomical elevation on the same date of 2015.   The right sun disk is heavily miraged,  it has twice less vertical sun disk but is more like Dr Andy Young's  Mock Mirage,  2 suns with the top one cut off.    Warmer Arctic atmospheres tend to cause less optical refraction.

     March 16 2015 has a warmer North Pacific but colder South Pacific,  similar to 2010,
but 2010 had a modest El-Nino over the winter. However, the trend is and was La-Nina'ish until very recently.    With North Pacific clouds nowhere as strong to seed the stratosphere as much as equatorial Cumulo Nimbus.

We see this seeding in the High Arctic another way:

   Basically the latest La-Nina trend created less cloud seeds (march 27 2015 above), we can hardly see any black cloud streaks (PSC's or Polar Tropopausic Clouds).  During an El-Nino,  a greater number of cloud seeds scatter world wide,  and come down in the High Arctic increasing cloud albedo,  therefore El-Nino cools the Arctic in Spring-Summer or warms the Arctic in late Autumn-Winter,  La-Nina does exactly the opposite.       There has been very good hypothesis of possible massive El-Nino forming as by CSU's Phil Klotzbach relayed by  Dr Masters.

   These higher than Cirrus clouds show up very well during twilight,   the more El-Nino is warm the more we see.   There is here double the streaks on this March 6 2010 shot of the same sky as on the preceding  photo right above.

    Prognosis from this data:

     There are other sources of information that I will publish later,  for now it looks like
there will be a sun driven earlier melt for Arctic Sea ice.  But it will be stopped
by extra clouds come about July.   Not quite ideal for a massive melt.  But other observations are forthcoming,  there is not enough compiled factors which will help decide the crucial circulation patterns to come.   I have a few more weeks of observing to do before making my yearly summer-fall-winter projection.  WD March 28,2015

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

RRR explained by open sea water and the location of the coldest Atmosphere

~The cold temperature North Pole is oscillating almost always at the same location

Complaints about extreme snowfall over the NE North American coast have nothing to do with Global Cooling. Rather everything to do with a wide area of missing sea ice. Some attribute correctly to these steady days of ground hog day like weather over the entirety of North America to Cristopher C Burt's analysis of RRR. There is a pressure ridge remarkably steady over the West North American coast area. This ridge does not move a lot like the sea ice boundary next to the Greenland Sea having sea water largely made open by recurring repeating Northeasterner Cyclones being part of an hemispheric wide circulation feedback:

Last month or so General circulation summary, repeated cyclones originating from about Florida USA and ending South of the Island of Novoya Zemlya, Russia. What attracts winter Gulf Stream Cyclones is North Atlantic open water, the more open, the longer they last. The longer they endure, the more a chance they can morph together and form an even larger Cyclonic area. A greater melt than usual of sea ice over the North Atlantic, as what happened during the last few years, exacerbated more precipitation over the entire North Atlantic area at times striking one country more than another:

At times, the shear number of cyclones morphed over a wide Arctic area, making Greenland the center of one very big cyclone. This nurtured a zonal coldest atmosphere of the world I call the Cold Temperature North Pole. But the predominant circulation from this structure is colder Central North Russian air flowing all the way to Ontario by way of the Pole. Next to this flow is coldest air thriving in darkness and is supported by the Straospheric Polar Vortex near -80 C center, together they contribute to the atmosphere compressing, becoming thinnest but really cold and dense, where all around the winds are greatest, this gives the polar jet stream as well, the center of which is the CTNP.:

Usually the CTNP migrates, fractures, is bounced around like a top, but this year it remained near North of Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait area. South Baffin Island Canada was very cold this winter, but Alaska very much opposite. The jet stream remained almost fixed in location, this guaranties the RRR to stay literally in place, for as long as the CTNP doesn't move, so does the jet stream. In green the jet stream largely placed by the thinner atmosphere either by extreme cold air or by strong very low in pressure cyclones. Cyclones in Red dominate the North Atlantic and Pacific. Whether they head North or not influences the Northern Hemisphere weather world wide.

The location of the CTNP literally dictates weather and impacts climate in the long run, especially if it is steady in location . This winters imprint is already set, a large area of sea ice, roughly centered 90 degrees East and West longitudes should have thicker sea ice. This gives a familiar look reminiscent of 2007 minima ice bridge. The continuous circulation from Central Russia to Ontario also means much drier, less snow covering the ground or sea surface, this implies a very early melt where ice is thinnest. Atlantic Cyclones repeatedly ending near Novaya Zemlya kept more open water over the North Atlantic and Greenland sea, the lately created sea ice there will be much thinner and this affects the melting season outlook. Its the combination of the colder Arctic Archipelago, the thicker 90 degrees longitude sea ice and perennially cold in darkness Greenland which locate the CTNP North Hudson Bay. As Atlantic Cyclones continue foraging Northeastwards, there is no reason to believe that the jet stream and RRR will change in position soon. If there was more sea ice over the North Atlantic, the weather would have been dramatically different. But the steady nature of current circulation pattern has everything to do with the warming of the planet and more melted sea ice.. WD February 17-18,2015

Thursday, February 12, 2015

LOW energy darkness.

~Vanishing twilight days data still very compelling.

    February 12, 2015,  there are high energy Lows basically cut off by High pressure system covering a wider area of the High Arctic.  The nearest High energy systems were 976 and 991 mb in strength,  they are not expansive and isolated.  The sunlight ray path 
on feb 12 went through  a  much smaller Upper Air  dT/dZ rate (difference in temperature/altitude depth) than some preceding events. 
   Dec 25 santa storm brightness versus February 12 low dT/dZ sunray transect.  
The higher energy event on Dec 25 was literally more visible.  

   With -13.1 degree sun way below horizon,  the last High Arctic observation days of ideal High Energy Events  were basically free of haze particulates,  because during the long night,  there was next to no photochemistry at all.  December 25 2014 is a class 10 extra bright event which was so strong it likely affected the sea Ice extent numbers later:

    Watch closely the biggest drop in recent sea ice extent was preceded by the "santa storm" a literal heat laden from the South Atlantic cyclone which headed almost strait to the North Pole ,  eventually  it merged with other Gulf Stream cyclones and covered a huge extent of the circumpolar world,  forming a true sub vortex.   

Fast forward to today (feb 12, 2015):

   The energy systems are nowhere as intense,   where did the brightness at -12.9 degrees below the horizon gone?    Although there was one recent event rivaling December 25,  it dissipated on the North American West Coast.  But the twilight observation  days are drawing to a close. The Arctic atmosphere is loaded with photochemically sensitive aerosols,  Arctic haze will be setting in,  however the haze dissipates during darkness , so the low just returning orange sun is not sufficient to affect twilight,  not yet,  but soon there will be no weak twilight to observe.  WDFeb12,2015

Thursday, January 22, 2015

North Pacific in Origin Low not as bright than from the South Atlantic.

   January 22 2015,   photo with  moon,  had clear air very similar to Dec 25, 2014.   December 25 sun elevation was -13.12 degrees,  while January -13.09 degrees,  but had twilight brightness well below December 25 2014 Santa storm shine despite somewhat similar mega scale weather.

            ECMWF map describes a pressure ridge from the Arctic Ocean and a minor Low pressure system over the Northwest Territories at pressures 30 mb higher than Santa Cyclone once over Central Quebec.    It was cold over Cornwallis Island -38 C,  while Yellowknife -19 C  very Balmy 7 degrees above normal.  The Ray Path  towards under the horizon the sun had key ingredients for a bright light energy event:

Ray path in black, meant twilight had near ideal temperature contrasts to generate more light for those living in darkness 24 hours a day.    But this low had lesser energy stored in it than during Santa storm.   The proof was in the twilight.   This latest observation continues  proving even more the great capacity in judging how strong a cyclone might be when juxtaposed to a dark zone.  With better equipment the same thing can be done with hurricanes or any high energy storm system.   WD Jan 22, 2015

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Confirmation, Higher energy weather systems are brighter

~Similar weather patterns gave darker twilights
~Difference in temperatures between Low and High pressure systems is what matters

   Simplified explanation:

   A high energy weather event exists when it has more heat or overall greater kinetic (molecular motion) energy than adjoining Pressure systems.     On a modest scale, hurricanes or typhoons are high energy systems,  on a macro or very large scale Cyclones contain large quantities of heat usually characterized by moisture content or much warmer temperatures along with wind motion.  A warm cyclone having gathered heat over a warmer Ocean source, can create more light channels especially if it heads towards Northern usually always colder High Pressure systems.   These channels are  similar in nature to fiber optic cables which carry light by refraction.    A cold system immediately next to a warmer one naturally creates channels at the interface between colder and warmer air.  The sunlight present
at many such  interfaces can get diverted like a laser light through fiber optic line,  and travel beyond  the earth's terminator, the edge between light and darkness separating night and day as seen from space.  In the High Arctic at present it is dark,  but a twilight exists at noon.  This twilight changes in intensity due to the position of the sun below the horizon,  the extent and type of clouds, pollution or natural aerosols, and finally how much refraction there is in the lower and mid lower atmosphere where normally the Arctic Air is warmest in darkness.

Confirmation of Pressure system driven light variations due to atmospheric refraction.

~please read the Christmas article just below,  this is a follow up.

   December 25 2014  (left),  was visually brighter than January 9 2015 (right).  The sun elevation was -12.07 and -12.12 degrees.   On camera ,  the visual perception was confirmed.  With exact camera settings and location in both instances.

    A bit later, December 25,2014 (left) and January 9,2015 (right) appear similar,  but there are large differences.   First the hills appear higher on Dec 25,  this may be an illusion due to brightness.   Second ,  despite January 9 more sparse lower clouds,  there appears far less redness, a feature of the raised horizon, purely a refraction and scattering phenomenon.  If there were more aerosols on either photo,  the red would have appeared hazed, or more uniform ,  but instead it was layered in refraction dispersion colors.
January 9 lack of redness was likely due to lateness of twilight.   When only white
light appears.    Finally Dec 25 sun elevation was 0.3 degrees lower than on January 9.
Remarkable demonstration on to how bright Christmas day twilight was, especially since
January 9 had very clear air,  especially cleansed by a 2 day blizzard,  and the temperature  was colder over he same wide area light has travelled.  Colder air gives stronger refraction without ducts.

Weather Prognosis

    Since before December 25,  several Atlantic North-easterner Cyclones have merged into a greater huge sub Polar vortex roughly centered over Greenland,  affecting weather over a vast areas spanning from Arctic Eurasia, Scandinavia all the way to mid-west USA.    Since Christmas,   the temperatures dropped significantly over most of North America,  with temperatures higher in he High Arctic.  Clearly a reversal in contrast has occurred,  instead of a wide deep in dT  macro interface  as on Christmas,  dT were largely diminished.  Pressure systems were equally not entirely similar, December 25 had a large intrusion of warm air spanning westwards past Hudson Bay. January 9 light path Cyclone was not so significant East of Hudson Bay.

     A very similar prognosis to Dec 25,2014, misleading because temperature Upper Profiles were very different.    The  Polar Vortex had 4 components,  in 2 small anticyclones amidst 2 larger cyclones.  The biggest Low centered over Greenland basically a sub-vortex covering half the North circumpolar world.

December 25,  90 W degree longitude line (the only vertical one) demonstrates  large difference in Upper Air temperatures,  up to 30 C dT between 600 mb (left) and 1000 mb (right).   This is what gives more light.   As opposed:

January 9, 90W transect had a much milder dT but still quite significant.  Therefore less light but still a lot.  THe difference in twilight brightness proves yet another very useful
refraction method,  this time in judging the magnitude of Cyclonic systems.
The December 25 event,  not giving destruction as dramatic as a hurricane was very important not only in revealing twilight brightness effects, but also in affecting the weather over a vast segment of the circumpolar world for weeks to come.  WDJan9-13

Thursday, December 25, 2014

Christmas brightest twilight signals great thermal event 2000 miles away

  Southern Cornwallis Island Nunavut Canada  had several days,  almost a week without clouds,  adjusted my eyesight well,  but what I saw verged on the impossible, or the possible but never noticed.   The picture with layered segments above are of the same twilight,  except the first one (top),  was taken earlier on December 22 2014, more to the East towards the sun position,  the two others below were taken in the same direction towards the sun azimuth location later in the afternoon of December 24  (middle) and 25 respectively.   As weak as twilight appears here,  it was in fact brighter to the naked eye.  But the same camera was used in order to demonstrate and record this refraction event.      The first segment was taken when he sun was -10.20 degrees below the horizon.  It seemed normal or close to the average twilight look at -10 degrees.  What caught my eye was the second segment,  at -12.13 degrees the horizon twilight was brighter than at -10,  a fantastic re-discovery (the Y-V Ulluq Q),  but this time captured with identical digital camera settings in every way.  It is hard to accept that a much lower under the horizon sun can produce more twilight in clear skies.  But horizon refraction often does so, but in this case can be considered a wow moment.  The physics involved  require a deeper understanding of how much heat this cyclone carried.  Heat  and cold are a major component of Atmospheric refraction.  However, for North Eastern Americans and Canadians it was more heath than usual.

     Further to the South an important cyclone has moved from the South Eastern US December 23  all the way to Central Quebec on the 25th of December.   Some called it "Santa  Bomb".  As this cyclone approached the Arctic the twilight brightened.  In fact brightest on the 25th.

    The second camera used replicated vision much better,  this was the 24th,  the cyclone approached polewards and injected a lot of heat,  this heat overlay over Arctic colder but seasonal air and caused an inversion interface at likely 2 altitudes,  one on the ground,  and the other at the maximum temperature in the upper atmosphere. On the 25th the horizon with sun at same altitude was remarkably brightest,  a Christmas like none other for long night people.

      Several magnitudes of twilight brightness increased in a mere few days,  the location of the major Cyclone varied from more than 2000 miles away and 1500 miles South South East when December 25 picture was taken.     One must consider the staggering amount of energy needed to create such an event,  and especially the extent of reach
one pressure system so far away may have.   I believe that this storm had more to it than calculated.

    Proof is in the position of the Christmas storm, temperatures in the Arctic did not vary
greatly, under a steady high pressure ridge.    The only variant was the Low American  North Eastener heading off its usual Ireland and UK track towards the Pole.

       Camera 2 sequence,   on day 24 the Low was further away NE USA,  day 25 maximum illumination due to closer proximity of Santa storm still warm (central Quebec).  Day 26 fading,  the storm lost a great deal of energy  on its way to Hudson Strait and thus the interface dT's, temperature differences were lesser,  from here on Arctic twilights will vary less bright until the next warm massive cyclone Polewards.  

Just How much more energy did the "Santa Storm" carry?

    Extra Light carried through  was not only due to its size,   but because of contrasting
weather powers,  the anticyclones  vs the santa-cyclone,  if the cyclone was  run of the mill standard and without much exception,  then it would have headed to Ireland and  UK  like the previous dozen or so.   Instead it headed more North,  clustered by Highs to the East West and even North of it :

 ECMWF Dec 25 2014 at 12z.        Extent wise this low seems modest.  Yet
there was a great deal more light high up in the Arctic.   The even more modest
High pressure ridge near Cornwallis offered no apparent clash to the titan much further South.

  The one week forecast made the Low merge with pre-existing left overs from previous North Atlantic incursions:

The "modest" santa low as forecasted really became  a North Atlantic Monster swallowing Greenland.   The forecast serves as a measure of energy,  if the santa low
was correctly evaluated the forecast would reflect this measure of accuracy.

          By the looks of it ,   the forecast was pretty impressive,  but there was more energy in the same date time surface analysis,  suggesting an under evaluation of the
total amount of energy a week prior.  

 WD December 25-26, 29 , 2014

Friday, November 21, 2014

new REFRACTION method reveals Arctic Atmosphere morphing to allow more Cyclonic penetration

~Interface Adiabatic Index dwarfs its opposite Interface Inversion Index by 80%
~Method exceeds any other technique in identifying what is happening at the most crucial interaction  between Earth surface and atmosphere.

   The larger question given by a warming planet is what happens to Earth aside from its climate heating up slowly.  The answer is at the interface.   In darkness,  the surface to air interface is cold, very cold,  the land or sea ice becomes a reflection of radiative cooling. Eventually  exceeding,  overwhelming what heat is left in the lower atmosphere.  However,  air is a good insulator,  in this case the usual  layers a top the interface remain warmer,  this causes inversions.   The rate of cooling or lack thereof can be judged by how strong the inversion is.  Extremely thick sea ice over the Arctic Ocean mirrors land during the long night especially after land exhausted or radiated most of its energy to space.  Ice some 10 meters thick has very little heat lost to space.    Thinner ice has
much more radiation escaping,  this flux of energy alters the climate terrain.   The lost of thick sea ice has already affected the climate worldwide.   In the Arctic past, winter was built by darkness with a sea largely non existent, in effect insulated by sea ice,  the lower atmosphere lost its heat upwards to space in Autumn, Winter is created when land and sea ice accelerate this cooling process  by heat radiation going at times 2 ways,  upwards towards  space and downwards towards much frozen Earth.

    Most remote sensing instruments do not read physical bodies next to each other extremely precisely.  As an example,  the air right above open water ocean is often not the same,  the remote sensing achievement in determining temperatures at 5, 10, 100 or 200 meters above or below the sea surface is outstanding.     But as I wrote before ,  this precision may be questioned,   how we measure the temperature of everything at once is a matter of future progress.  What the horizon refraction method does is quite unique,  singularly a measure of the physical or thermal process at the interface at once.  Its precision is unquestionable.  A true measure of the temperature of the entire atmosphere is the dimension of the vertical sun disk, the most precise temperature measurement of the entire atmosphere in existence,  but the thermal nature of the surface interface seen at once is invaluable.

    Warmer November 2014 lower atmosphere (left) and sea ice (Right) over Chukchi sea was directly responsible for almost burying Buffalo NY state,  the jet stream went way North roughly following this warming anomaly.  How to explain  this possible when in 2012   there was far lesser sea ice at minima with Chukchi sea ice  in 2012 colder?  :

Courtesy NOAA.....  So we are suppose to believe that the ice surface near Chukchi sea
in 2012 went just as cold or colder from an area which had wide open water as compared with 2014 minima apparently not having such a  great melt?  

The presence of thick ice does a remarkable transformation of the horizon as opposed to a body of open water or very thin ice.    From this literal point of view,  the interpretation of interface thermal physics can be judged instantly.  Observations 
so far this Arctic fall reveal a predominant IAI: Interface Adiabatic Index,  meaning 
the interface from ice to immediate lower atmosphere being adiabatic,  not
fostering inversions describes thinner ice as the area of observation is directed towards the sea.   Other methods of measurement usually are oblivious to the interface mixing zone,  being blind or oblivious to the IAI gives room for plenty of strange misinterpretations.  Now that I know that the IAI is overwhelmingly high.  
I understand that any cyclone can easily venture further North,  as was the 
case in he North Pacific Low in part strengthened by a typhoon, this Cyclone of a week past can also advect warmer air,  compounding the IAI to last much longer.   The opposite III ,  a predominant long lasting Interface Inversion Index means winter in progress,  the very nature of cold air 'construction'  or progression demands 
a consistent III,  which would repulse and rather chase away any Cyclone.  
III at present is very anemic....

wd Nov22,2014
and therefore   

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

The sunline on the lunar horizon

~Lunar horizon glow looks eerily similar to the sunline on Arctic Earth

                      Surveyor 6 , November 6 1967 lunar sunset on the Western horizon.
There is something very familiar about this,  of course its the sunline.   But wait there is
apparently no atmosphere on the moon.   The theory suggesting electrically charged dust causing a sunline is questioned here.  Of all EH2r records from a significant database of Earthly sunsets (from polar and temperate zones),  none have given a sunline due to dust,  it does not happen.   Sunlines are a pure atmospheric optical refraction effect.  

      To the untrained eye, it is hard to say which of these two pictures is from the moon or Earth,  the moon shot (left) should have a pitch black sky, and the Earth's brighter atmosphere gives away the polar sunset (right).  There is no doubt about moon dust on the lunar picture (left) given by the small aureola, similar to haze or dusty horizons on Earth.   But the sunline is unmistakably identical.  The rocky lunar surface is very similar to the sandstone Arctic gravel hill 3.5 km away from camera:

Arctic hill sunset October 14, 2014.  Remarkable
refraction effect caused a few km away,  not through a long distance of atmosphere.  But caused by air less than half a meter above the gravel hill.  It took very little gaseous molecules to cause this effect.

There was a very faint or negligible corona  because there was no dust or ice crystals (it was too warm for crystals to form).  There was light winds as well,  frozen ground reduced dust levels greatly almost completely.

   The absence of dust here contradicted the presumption that sunlines
are caused by dust.  They exist because of gas.  Until a dust sunline can be replicated,  a dust sunline is simply an un-observed theory on Earth.

    There is an unmistakable structure with any sun line,  if you zoom you will see red line layered below the brighter yellow which can be at times blue or green.  The red has to be below because there is less bending of red light,  it is a refraction effect.  Consider the same photo with no significant atmosphere and the line would appear greatly brighter than background.

  A careful look reveals almost identical sun line between Earth and moon,  the difference is of course in part due to different optical equipment utilized.  The moon's aureole was illuminated by moon dust,  but the sunline is a totally distinct feature.  Has nothing to do with dust as seen on the edges of the moon's sunline especially at left,  where the aureole dust above hardly makes a glow.   There is also a photonic disturbance below the main brighter moon sunline suggesting a red imprint of course not recorded as such.
     The actual physics of dust bending light uniformly would be quite exotic,  unless unique to the moon,  dust scatters light when photons are present.  The theory suggesting
that light gets bent,  creating a later sunset, indeed introducing focused photons making a layer of the micro horizon bright  has nothing to do with particulates.

       It is not inconceivable that the moon may have some daily outgassing similar to comets during their celestial orbits approaching the sun.   On the lunar surface there is a daily very steep rapid change in temperature,  a heat cycle familiar in the Arctic,  where micro surface thermal variations are responsible for great photon redirecting.  There is also an atmosphere on the moon,  said to be very weak,  13 degrees of magnitude weaker than on earth,  perhaps not always the same or uniformly everywhere on its surface. WD October 15-16, 2014