Sunday, September 8, 2013

Cooler air reducing sea ice melt??? Not so...

Many are saying that 2013 melting season was reversed by colder air.  This doesn't represent a correct description of what has happened,  the colder surface air manifested  from a negative feedback which has nothing to do with cooling.   



  First off,  1 month in the late melting season does indeed look like a great thaw.
But it wasn't entirely so,  concurrent surface temperatures closely reflected the lack of compaction of sea ice due to North Pole centered  counterclockwise winds:

     Uncanny duplication of ice morphology by a temperature anomaly map.  It came merely as a  rendering of extremely stable cyclonic activity:

   The center of the long lasting Cyclone was between Northern Ellesmere and the North Pole.  This automatically means a North Atlantic flow of air,  which favors a greater melt or warming on the European and West Russian side of the Pole, but also favors NW influx of air towards the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.  Conversely a early snow season occurred over the CAA ,  while none over Northern Russia and Europe.  

               There was nearly no compaction of sea ice,  because the beaufort Gyre got cancelled during the melt season by cyclonic winds.

     False reasoning would dictate that there was more sea ice extent this season because
surface temperatures got colder, not so.   There was more ice extent because of anti Arctic Ocean Gyre winds which cancelled the usual sea ice compaction:

   Surface winds  (my black arrows)  shaped the very look of the entire pack.   Scattered Sea ice cooled surface air more (the negative feedback).   Influx of warm North Atlantic air caused an early snow season to one portion of the circumpolar world.  The great 2013 dispersal of sea ice masked the actual melt especially when using standard statistics.

      The tentative conclusion that there was less melting because Polar weather was cooler is not at all accurate.  WD September 8,2013

1 comment: