We go back to 2010 the X-warmest year in history, with El-Nino during 2009-10 winter favoring more Polar clouds, perfect for making thinner sea ice during darkness, not so good for the melting sea ice during summer. 2010 was interesting, because La Nina was full blown on December 2010. This further delayed a major melting season till 2012. 2010 had almost a perfect mix, El-Nino during winter and La-Nina hitting in spring would have made 2010 the greatest melting ever. However La-Nina lagged by a few months. Now lets compare ENSO's :
Mock Mirage, 2 suns with the top one cut off. Warmer Arctic atmospheres tend to cause less optical refraction.
but 2010 had a modest El-Nino over the winter. However, the trend is and was La-Nina'ish until very recently. With North Pacific clouds nowhere as strong to seed the stratosphere as much as equatorial Cumulo Nimbus.
We see this seeding in the High Arctic another way:
CSU's Phil Klotzbach relayed by Dr Masters.
Prognosis from this data:
There are other sources of information that I will publish later, for now it looks like
there will be a sun driven earlier melt for Arctic Sea ice. But it will be stopped
by extra clouds come about July. Not quite ideal for a massive melt. But other observations are forthcoming, there is not enough compiled factors which will help decide the crucial circulation patterns to come. I have a few more weeks of observing to do before making my yearly summer-fall-winter projection. WD March 28,2015