Saturday, April 23, 2016

2016 annual spring projection, made by sun disk observations and otherwise unorthodox means

~  Northern Hemisphere collapsing cold atmosphere
~ ENSO plays weather maker along with dwindling sea ice extent
~ Extra 2015-16 snowfall  a major role in twisting jet stream
~  2016 warmest consecutive year in history  known since beginning of March,  but not official till January 2017
~ 2008 Big Blue repeat,  cloud seeding theory confirmed yet again.

The sun is of course a giant thermometer, not only a source of energy.   Notice apparent lack of sunspots didn't cool anything though.

   Arctic deflated sun as seen through many atmospheres.  The sun and Earth atmosphere are telling how hot it is anywhere on our planet.   The same sun taken in the tropics at the same altitude would look a whole lot rounder.

Rare near dead center lone sunspot is the signature event of this spring. Can you tell which suns as posted above were upright?

Annual coming summer/fall/winter  projection:. 

First the projection, 
   Because it is so obvious,  2016 will be the warmest year in history despite  a forming LaNina. which is the most lethal combination for the survival of the Arctic Ocean ice pack.  Less North American tornados than average is expected because of collapse of cold air in the higher atmosphere,  despite it being very cold during January and February just past.  However there will be a return of Hurricanes hitting North American shores.   Rain for the west Coast of North America will resume to more normal levels until September.    Very hot summer  temperatures for the middle North American continent will extend towards the entire East coast.  NW Europe will be wet which makes it slightly cool,  but drier cold  fall.   Eurasia and Western Russia super heat waves are expected.

       The potential for the North Pole to be sea ice free at Minima coming mid September  has never been higher.  Arctic sea ice extent will be smaller than all time lowest record of 2012.   Clouds will span less in all regions of the world favoring droughts  and heat waves everywhere  even where they don't usually occur.   

      Winter coming will be at first very warm,  becoming bitterly cold in January,  and so will the sea ice recover rapidly but with far less multi-year ice.  


         End of winter/early spring average vertical sun disk  size comparisons ending April 21, 2016

   What is the score? 

                2016 is  #1  at 15.45%.

                 #2 2015 at 11.82%  
                 #3 [2005, 2006 and 2013] at 10% 
                 #4  [2009, 2010, 2011]  at  8.18%

                                            5th place 2012  7.27 %. 

          6.7%  should be considered a normal year to year fluctuation of all time average vertical sun disk maximum dimensions.  Data from 110 vertical sun disk decimal levels extending  from -0.9 to +10.9 degrees elevations, including 540 observations, above normal year acquisition numbers due to no clouds  currently continuing.  With about 42 sun disk measurements per degree elevation, each yearly vertical sun disk average is compared between years 2002 to 2016 inclusively (15 seasons). 

     What does this mean?  Vertical sun disks are expanded in a tropical atmosphere as opposed to much compressed for a polar atmosphere.  If there is a warming of the atmosphere in the polar regions,  vertical sun disks dimensions have to expand.  But not necessarily evenly at all sun elevations.  The truer measure of expansiveness is clearly depicted by comparing vertical sun disk dimensions from year to year.  Sun disks are another way of signaling over all temperature trends of the entire atmosphere from 2 times its actual vertical thickness to about 40 times.  It is the most precise depiction of warming since it incorporates huge atmospheric distances,  far more than any satellite or possibly radars.

       Year 2016 gave extraordinary results despite all time high levels of snow depth on sea ice and land surfaces.  This snow dates back to  October-November 2015.   Laid out more than twice thick than normal.  As a  good insulator,  thicker snow depth kept permafrost warmer and the sea ice thinner.  It also made the rising sun ineffective in warming surface air.  Despite more reflection to space, overall winter temperature averages were above normal.  Not by much, but above average.    Expanded sun disk dimensions mirrored the state of the atmosphere up to where the deeper snow had an impact.    All time average highest expansion averages occurred 12 times between 10 to 5 degrees elevations and 4 times  -1 to 4 degrees elevations.   Moreover,  the upper air above 5 degrees elevation has had many, the most numerous ever,  exploded sun disk sizes especially in the critically usually very cold Northwest atmosphere from Southern Cornwallis Island Nunavut  Canada.    The coldest high atmosphere air seems to have collapsed or warmed substantially.    This is a remarkable event and affects the outlook of coming weather everywhere over the Northern Hemisphere.  

            El-Nino event just past was largely felt by more clouds during the entire Arctic long night.
Unlike central Arctic Archipelago, the larger Arctic was found to be extremely warmed with large temperature anomalies easily more than 4 C in many regions.  ENSO reverted quickly towards La-Nina lately.  Replicating 2008 "big blue" event which was and consists numerous consecutive days without clouds.    Interruptions of this years “big blue” was only by encroaching cyclones,  there are no substantial cooling cloud spans about.   At season end,  mid  May, there should be nearly the same amount of sun disk observations than during  2008.  The 'big blue" event of 2008 had huge consequences for water puddles over sea ice.  

 Optical to remote sensing Correlations: 

 NOAA   essentially confirmed  the large warming of the stratosphere which was seen as unbelievable sun disk expansions,  especially with sun shots captured at higher elevations.    The latest bit of cooling was equally caught recently with the sun returning to more normal vertical diameters.  
The upper troposphere and stratosphere accounts to about 40% of sun disk refraction.  
      The seen warming occurred at 250 mb covering almost exactly the Archipelago.   But this was the same location where the coldest surface air persisted.  Very much conducive to little clouds.   A vertical temperature anomaly event from no clouds with deeper surface snow pack reflecting the gradually intensifying sun rays?    

   Where is summer cold Arctic air going to hang out?

       The imminent collapse of the Alaska to North Pole sector pack Ice will impact the jet stream.  But there are other factors largely related to current La-Nina trending.   Cloud seeding theory predicts less clouds for the Arctic when    ENSO  turns towards La-Nina,  as it has already occurred,  this favors Anticyclone genesis  as has happened especially above the Arctic Ocean gyre area.  Mid-April onwards should usually be a very cloudy Arctic Ocean sky,  characterized with hardly distinguishable geographic and pack ice lead features perceivable by satellite photos.    So far, this was not the case,  reinforcing again a  cloud seeding theory largely correct.  But note,  North Atlantic and Pacific  Ocean SST’s were cooled for a prolonged time period because of the same  cloud seeding reason when El-Nino was full blast, more clouds occurred over the Northern Oceans by enormous consecutive Polar Vortex cyclones.   These cooler vast areas of sea water will have an important impact just as well.   Past winter circulation pattern of North Atlantic to Pole cyclones favored a lot of moisture covering most of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago Southwards.  This same pattern likely gave less snow for Central Northern Eurasia, very unlike winter 2014-15 huge transcontinental pattern. 

 Arctic General circulation projections:
  Again I split it in three distinct periods:

 April  May:

        3 distinct Cold Temperature North Poles (CTNP) vortices  are expected.  2 will eventually collapse and only one will remain at sea ice Minima.  The current Arctic Dipole will largely remain in place for 4 distinct reasons:  Warm winter continued to spring with temperature to dew point ratio spread further apart, less cloud coverage because La-Nina trends,  mesoscale CTNP Polar vortices favor a High Pressure between them, with descending air above the Gyre High much warmer than normal.  

 June July:
  2 CTNP left with the largest wobbling like a top over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.  The Jet stream more or less similar to spring fading away along where the coldest land of sea surfaces are. 
Note the  gyre High moving towards Russia mainly because of CTNP placement.  

August September

  Greenland  largest ice with Ellesmere becomes the center of Cold teamed with what is left of pack ice ,  Cyclones now  linger  over the Beaufort Gyre.  The big difference with last year is the diminished Polar jet stream not as high in latitude over the Pacific.  I'd expect some major heat wave action North Eurasia along with great cyclone diversions NE american continent.  

         Consider 3 large geophysical events,  very strong El-Nino quickly replaced by La-Nina, the apparent vanishing clouds and a much warmed cloudy winter preceding a cloudless spring. Top this with  a huge chunk of sea ice melted once again and 2016 should be remembered as a wonderful hot summer where most people live,  especially for those appreciating heat waves,  but a disaster where the climatic systems are particularly vulnerable.  The weather weirdness factor will thus increase in ways not so kind to all.  WD April 24 2016 

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