Thursday, September 7, 2017

The Very good work of MIT's Professor Kerry Emmanuel

~ "A-new-study-says-hurricanes-will-get-stronger-and-more-frequent-thanks-to-climate-change"

~  Contrary to fringe media gossipers bent on lying and ignorance,  science at times can be prophetic;
less frequent but very strong  hurricanes are at play.  As published in a journal many years ago (since at least 2005).  

First system formed 

June 8, 2005 

Last system dissipated 

January 6, 2006

(record latest, tied with 1954
Strongest storm Name 

Wilma (Most intense hurricane in the Atlantic basin) 

• Maximum winds 

185 mph (295 km/h)

(1-minute sustained) 

• Lowest pressure 

882 mbar (hPa; 26.05 inHg

Seasonal statistics 

Total depressions 

31 (record high) 

Total storms 

28 (record high) 

Hurricanes 

15 (record high) 

Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+

7 (record high, tied with 1961

Total fatalities 

3,913 total 

Total damage 

$158.9 billion (2005 USD)
(Costliest tropical cyclone season on record) 



First system formed 

April 19, 2017 

Last system dissipated 

Season ongoing 

Strongest storm Name 


• Maximum winds 

185 mph (295 km/h) (1-minute sustained) 

• Lowest pressure 

914 mbar (hPa; 26.99 inHg

Seasonal statistics 

Total depressions 

12 

Total storms 

11 

Hurricanes 


Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+

3

Total fatalities 

91 total 

Total damage 

> $70 billion (2017 USD)
     The past 12 years were not exactly busy ones for hurricanes,  quite unlike typhoons.  
the South Atlantic has its own weather factors going,  namely its smaller size than the Pacific, ENSO influence and the effects of dust from the Sahara desert.  The latter was observed in late July falling over South Texas.   Perhaps the Saharan dust plume relinquished in later August letting the hurricanes form without dust impediments:

   March 2017 Saharan dust plume North Africa is seen to the upper right.  It makes a great deal of sense that dust may simply inhibit hurricane development,  also likely a warmer planet, in turn Sahara,  will diminish the number of hurricanes forming.  Hence the likely further warming  of "uncooled" South Atlantic sea water,  as it is known,  that hurricanes mix the underlying lower cooler layer of sea water with the very warm surface sea under its path.   The further warmed more stable  sea water may give incredibly stronger hurricanes whenever the conditions are ripe.  

    The good news ,  certainly needed,  is that the last Arctic cell of massively cold air exists at this time in the Greenland-Ellesmere-Devon-North Baffin region, is as strong as can be according to current High Arctic vertical sun disk measurements,  quite compressed, similar to March even though the density weighted temperatures are 10 degrees warmer.  The mid to higher upper atmosphere is much cooler because there is less clouds than over the rest of the Arctic.   This cooling positions the jet stream and or circulation directly further South towards where the hurricanes are.   This is a better scenario than what happened with Harvey in Texas. WD September 7, 2017